Stock &amp; Commodity Watchlist

#10

Enterprise agent-security vendors

companymedium conviction

whether confirmed-incident rate (54%) accelerates purpose-built tooling adoption beyond current low-single-digit market share

Catalyst: Q3 enterprise security budget cycles
When: September 2026 quarter-end procurement windows

4/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 17 – Jul 17

10 causal chainsActive story thread2 key figures

#11

BHP

companylow conviction

base metals revenue mix vs. gold peers amid $228B sector drawdown

Catalyst: Q2 production report
When: July 2026

3/10

Conviction

3 digests · 3 mentions

Jul 12 – Jul 2

#12

Bunker Hill Mining

companylow conviction

Mill ramp rate toward design capacity and first silver sales

Catalyst: Production guidance update and first ore shipment financials
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

3 digests · 3 mentions

Jun 23 – Jun 18

1 causal chain

#13

Greenland Resources (Malmbjerg)

companylow conviction

Deployment plan for C$5M Canadian federal funding; whether additional G7 governments follow Canada's precedent

Catalyst: Project financing update
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

3 digests · 3 mentions

Jun 26 – Jun 19

#14

Amazon / Anthropic

companylow conviction

scope and model performance benchmarks of distilled Anthropic variants versus full-scale models

Catalyst: Token-based pricing transition in 2025 creating cost pressure
When: Pricing model rollout, H2 2025

3/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jun 28 – Jun 26

4 causal chains

#15

CATL / CarbonScape

companylow conviction

biographite plant construction milestones and offtake structure disclosure

Catalyst: First North American plant groundbreaking
When: H2 2026

3/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 12 – Jul 11

2 causal chains

#16

Google

companylow conviction

EU Android AI-access compliance timeline and appeal posture on German media law ruling

Catalyst: One-month appeal window on State Media Treaty ruling; EC Android implementation deadline
When: Mid-August 2026

3/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 16 – Jul 2

2 causal chains

#17

IDEX Metals

companylow conviction

follow-up assay results confirming tungsten grade at Kismet/Freeze, Idaho

Catalyst: Next drill program results release
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 12 – Jul 10

1 causal chain

#18

Leading Edge Materials

companylow conviction

first production timeline and offtake agreement announcements for Norra Kärr

Catalyst: 25-year concession now active; project financing and engineering procurement will follow
When: H2 2026

3/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jun 29 – Jun 28

3 causal chains

#19

SK Hynix

companylow conviction

U.S. fab site selection and timeline commitments

Catalyst: Post-IPO congressional and CHIPS Act engagement
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 10 – Jul 2

2 causal chains

#20

CXMT (Chinese DRAM)

companylow conviction

Western OEM validation of DDR5-8200 modules beyond MSI; potential US trade response

Catalyst: Additional motherboard vendor BIOS updates; any BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) review
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 6 – Jul 6

3 causal chainsActive story thread

#21

Federal Reserve AI Task Force

companylow conviction

first formal policy output on AI's inflationary or disinflationary effect

Catalyst: Marc Andreessen and task force advisory report
When: Unscheduled; watch FOMC communications Q3–Q4 2026

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 10 – Jul 10

3 causal chainsActive story thread

#22

Google Cloud / Meta

companylow conviction

resolution or escalation of capacity restriction affecting Meta AI workloads

Catalyst: Google Q2 infrastructure capacity disclosures
When: July 2026 earnings cycle

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 22 – Jun 22

5 causal chains

#23

Meta (chip program)

companylow conviction

Production ramp confirmation and process node disclosure for September chip production start

Catalyst: Official production milestone announcement
When: September 2026

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 9 – Jul 9

5 causal chains

#24

Meta (internal AI tooling policy)

companylow conviction

enforcement scope of Claude/Codex ban and whether restriction extends to other third-party AI coding assistants

Catalyst: Training data contamination concern formalized as policy
When: Ongoing; next internal policy disclosure or leak

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 28 – Jun 28

5 causal chainsActive story thread1 key figure

#25

Meta Cloud Compute

companylow conviction

pricing structure, launch timeline, and first enterprise customer disclosures

Catalyst: Formal cloud product announcement expected post-July 1 investor day
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 1 – Jul 1

6 causal chains

#26

Nvidia RTX 3060 (trailing-node GPU strategy)

companylow conviction

Sell-through velocity at $339 price point as a proxy for mid-market GPU demand elasticity

Catalyst: Retail inventory data and channel checks
When: 30–60 days

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 23 – Jun 23

4 causal chainsActive story thread

#27

OpenAI / Broadcom Jalapeño Program

companylow conviction

Tape-out timeline and first inference benchmark disclosures

Catalyst: Any public performance or cost-per-token data release
When: H2 2026 roadmap communications

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 25 – Jun 25

5 causal chainsActive story thread

#28

OpenAI / GPT-5.6 Sol

companylow conviction

whether independent academic institutions replicate or extend the Benjamini-Hochberg disproof, establishing a replicability standard for AI-assisted mathematical research

Catalyst: Peer review or follow-on publication by University of Pennsylvania team
When: 30–60 day window

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 15 – Jul 15

5 causal chainsActive story thread

#29

Red Chris Mine (Canada)

companylow conviction

construction timeline and procurement specifics following C$352M federal commitment

Catalyst: Project finance close and contractor announcements
When: Q3–Q4 2026

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 3 – Jul 3

4 causal chainsActive story thread

#30

UAE AI Chip Buyers (Tier 1: G42, MGX)

companylow conviction

first large-scale GPU purchase orders placed under the new unrestricted access regime, and which U.S. suppliers capture initial volume

Catalyst: Public procurement announcements or supplier earnings commentary
When: Q3 2026

3/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 15 – Jul 15

5 causal chainsActive story thread

#31

Alphabet (GOOG)

GOOGcompanylow conviction

Post-Dow passive inflow stabilization vs. AI search revenue pressure in Q2 results

Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings
When: Late July 2026

2/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jun 26 – Jun 18

#32

Microsoft

companylow conviction

FY2026 carbon emissions disclosure and data center energy sourcing strategy

Catalyst: Annual sustainability report
When: Q1 2027 (covers FY2026)

2/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 11 – Jul 4

1 causal chain

#33

Mistral

companylow conviction

commercial availability date and pricing for Robostral Navigate 8B robotics model

Catalyst: Official launch announcement
When: No date given; watch August 2026

2/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 8 – Jul 4

#34

Netflix

companylow conviction

analyst response to reduced "What We Watched" engagement disclosure frequency and impact on content-ROI modeling

Catalyst: Sell-side model revisions post-earnings
When: Next 2 weeks

2/10

Conviction

2 digests · 2 mentions

Jul 17 – Jul 16

1 key figure

#35

Alphabet/Google

companylow conviction

EU antitrust ruling on search data-sharing remedy and Android AI opening requirements

Catalyst: Google's formal privacy-risk objection filed with EU regulators
When: EU decision expected Q4 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 29 – Jun 29

2 causal chains

#36

Altius Minerals

companylow conviction

deployment of C$181.5M royalty capital into specific asset categories; West Africa exposure versus safer jurisdictions will test management's risk appetite given the Sahel security assessment

Catalyst: Royalty acquisition announcement
When: 60–90 day window

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 15 – Jul 15

1 causal chain

#37

Anthropic / Slack

companylow conviction

Claude Tag beta conversion to general availability and Enterprise seat pricing disclosure

Catalyst: Salesforce-Slack Q2 earnings commentary on third-party AI integrations
When: July–August 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 24 – Jun 24

4 causal chains

#38

Anthropic Sonnet 5

companylow conviction

benchmark performance vs. GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro on coding and reasoning tasks

Catalyst: Independent evals publication following global release
When: July 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 1 – Jul 1

4 causal chains

#39

Apple / PrismML

companylow conviction

Licensing or acquisition announcement for on-device model compression technology

Catalyst: iOS 27 developer release and on-device inference benchmark publication
When: Q3 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 14 – Jul 14

1 causal chain

#40

ASML

companylow conviction

third consecutive guidance revision risk; two raises in one calendar year implies demand modeling is structurally lagging actual order flow

Catalyst: Q3 order intake report
When: October 2026 earnings

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 15 – Jul 15

1 causal chain

#41

Brazil / INB

companylow conviction

Chief of Staff and Mines Ministry formal approval of uranium private-investment decree

Catalyst: 90-day working group uranium resource assessment deadline
When: October 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 14 – Jul 14

2 causal chains

#42

CoreWeave / Lambda / Crusoe

companylow conviction

Enterprise adoption rate among mid-market customers; any announced capacity commitments tied to switching intent wave

Catalyst: VentureBeat compute survey switching window (38% of enterprises plan change within 90 days)
When: Q3 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 16 – Jul 16

1 causal chain

#43

DeepSeek

companylow conviction

Confirmation of $1.5B close and lead investor identity

Catalyst: IPO registration filing timeline for 2027 debut
When: Q3 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 14 – Jul 14

2 causal chainsActive story thread

#44

DiscoBench benchmark adoption

companylow conviction

whether enterprise AI buyers begin requiring clarification-seeking scores alongside accuracy metrics for agentic search procurement

Catalyst: First enterprise RFP citing DiscoBench criteria
When: Q3–Q4 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jul 5 – Jul 5

1 causal chainActive story thread

#45

Google (Alphabet)

companylow conviction

GPU capacity allocation policy and enterprise AI pricing structure

Catalyst: Q2 earnings and cloud segment guidance
When: Late July 2026

2/10

Conviction

1 digest · 1 mention

Jun 23 – Jun 23

2 causal chains