What Anthropic's Internal Economic Model Reveals About the Next Phase of AI Labor Disruption | DailySand

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What Anthropic's Internal Economic Model Reveals About the Next Phase of AI Labor Disruption

Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 32 items · 7 min read · Updated 1:03 AM

By the Numbers

$1,199

iPhone 18 Pro starting price

Tech

$6 billion

Treasury debt buyback authorization

Financial

3x

multiple of normal buyback level

Financial

The Day's Thesis

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Signal of the Day: Anthropic's internally published economic model places 17.9% knowledge-worker unemployment by 2030 in its extreme scenario — the same scenario its CEO Dario Amodei's May forecasts fall squarely within.

The 30-Second Read:

Anthropic's three-scenario model frames Amodei's bleakest forecasts as a statistical tail, but that tail includes 17.9% unemployment among knowledge workers by 2030
Copper hit an all-time LME high of $14,708.50/MT on September 8, driven by DRC export bans, Strait of Hormuz sulfuric acid shortages, and AI data center demand
AWS and Qualcomm formalized a mutual chip design loop — Qualcomm builds inference silicon for AWS; AWS Bedrock designs Qualcomm's next chips — advancing the AI hardware vertical integration race
Anthropic researcher Evan Hubinger puts odds of misaligned superintelligent AI wiping out humanity within this decade at above 10%, prompting a public researcher departure

Today's dominant narrative is a tension between acceleration and reckoning: AI labs are publishing economic models that quantify the disruption they are building, while their own researchers are publicly quantifying existential risk. Capital markets are pricing the infrastructure demands of that acceleration into copper, which just set its highest-ever price.

AI & Research Frontier

Anthropic published a three-scenario economic model in which its CEO's own job-loss forecasts qualify as the extreme outlier — not the baseline.

The model projects U.S. knowledge-worker unemployment at 17.9% by 2030 only under the most aggressive AI adoption path, with output doubling every 4.5 years in that scenario. The baseline and moderate paths are materially softer, a framing that positions Amodei's May warnings as tail-risk rather than central tendency. The publication is notable as a primary-source quantification of disruption from the lab causing it — a data point that will anchor policy and labor research through the decade.

Sources & Items

AIMIT AI

MIT Schwarzman College of Computing launches pilot to help educators teach AI across disciplines

A weeklong summer workshop brought higher education faculty to campus to explore how AI and machine learning materials can be adapted for their classrooms.

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TechTechCrunch

AI research startup Listen Labs scrubbed a $1.5B funding round for Salesforce talks

Listen Labs walked away from a signed Series C term sheet from Menlo Ventures, sources say.

More coverage: daily AI news · AI technology news · AI finance news

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Critical MineralsINN Rare Earths

Post Acquisition Review of Garden Valley Project Identifies Significant Rare-Metal Opportunity

Critical minerals explorer and developer QEM Limited (ASX: QEM) ("QEM" or "Company") is pleased to announce that it has completed a detailed review and compilation of available historical geological, mining and exploration information for the Garden Valley Project (formerly known as the Columbite Project) located in central-west Idaho, USA, for the purpose of identifying early exploration targets and activities. This follows the acquisition of all shares in Freshwater Metals Pty Ltd("Freshwater")2, the owner of two critical minerals exploration projects: Big It and Garden Valley projects. Big It is a past producer of tungsten, and is also prospective for antimony and gold, while the Garden Valley Project hosts the Vaught-Peck prospect which is prospective for niobium, tantalum and other rare earth elements (REE). Highlights Garden Valley Project represents a highly prospective U.S. rare-metal pegmatite project with exceptional coarse rare-metal mineralisation documented in historical government records Historical Vaught-Peck mine reportedly produced approx. 500lbs of columbite and identified a substantial zoned pegmatite (250 ft long, at least 200 ft wide) providing a priority target Multiple additional mineralised pegmatite occurrences across the Project provide district-scale exploration upside, with no systematic modern exploration or drilling completed Garden Valley Project is prospective for multiple U.S. critical minerals including: niobium, tantalum and REE - providing potential to address significant U.S. supply chain vulnerability United States has not had any significant mining of niobium ortantalum since the late 1950s with the U.S. reported as 100%net-import reliant on both metals Commenting on the Garden Valley project, Managing Director Robert Cooper said, "The compilation of the data for Garden Valley (formerly named Columbite) demonstrates the clear exploration potential for the highly prospective, underexplored niobium and tantalum system, and provides a platform from which QEM can plan and undertake exploration activities. Combined with the Big It Project, the Garden Valley Project positions the Company at the forefront of several tightening critical mineral global supply chains. With niobium constrained by extreme supply concentration and the tantalum market increasing, we see a unique potential for QEM to address the U.S. critical minerals supply chain crisis, and ultimately becoming a domestic producer of these critical minerals in the United States to feed a growing market." Review Highlights Garden Valley Project represents a highly prospective U.S. rare-metal pegmatite project Multiple historically documented niobium (columbite), tantalum-bearing rare-metal and rare earth elements (REE) mineral occurrences across the Garden Valley claim package. Historical Columbite Mine represents the priority target Historical USGS work documented a large, strongly zoned pegmatite approx. 250 ft long and at least 200 ft wide, tested by a approx. 150 ft underground tunnel beneath a prominent quartz core. Exceptional coarse rare-metal mineralisation historically reported Includes recovery of a 309 lb columbite-bearing crystal associated with an approximately 100 lb samarskite crystal, demonstrating the capacity of the pegmatite system to develop very coarse concentrations of niobium-bearing and REE-bearing minerals. Multiple additional mineralised pegmatites provide district-scale exploration upside Reporting of historical columbite, samarskite and/or euxenite at the Bowman and Mirandeborde prospects, together with rare-earth oxides at Mica Dome. Historical exploration was limited and largely confined to surface/underground prospecting Principal occurrences were documented during mid-20th-century investigations with no systematic modern exploration programmes having been undertaken to define the scale, continuity or geochemical characteristics of the broader pegmatite field. Clear pathway to rapidly advance the Project Programmes to commence with geological and structural mapping, systematic rock and soil geochemistry and modern geophysics, followed by potential drilling of priority targets, including Vaught-Peck, Bowman and Mirandeborde. Click here for the full ASX Release This article includes content from QEM Ltd, licensed for the purpose of publishing on Investing News Australia. This article does not constitute financial product advice. It is your responsibility to perform proper due diligence before acting upon any information provided here. Please refer to our full disclaimer here.

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Critical MineralsINN Rare Earths

What Was the Highest Price for Copper?

Strong demand in the face of looming supply shortages has pushed copper to new heights in recent years. With a wide range of applications in nearly every sector, copper is by far the most industrious of the base metals. In fact, for decades, the copper price has been a key indicator of global economic health, earning the red metal the moniker “Dr. Copper.” Rising prices tend to signal a strong global economy, while a significant longer-term drop in the price of copper is often a symptom of economic instability. After bottoming out at US$2.17 per pound, or US$5,203.58 per metric ton (MT), in mid-March 2020, copper has largely been on an upward trajectory and is trading around the US$6 per pound mark in 2026. Why is copper so expensive in 2026? Higher copper prices over the past few years have largely been attributed to a widening supply/demand gap. Copper mining and refining activities simply haven’t kept up with the rebound in economic activity in recent years, and rising demand from AI infrastructure and electrification are raising demand even higher. Now, global copper mine supply is tightening at a time when US President Donald Trump's tariffs are placing further strains on copper supply. In response, copper prices hit multiple new records in 2025 and 2026. But what was the highest price for copper? The Investing News Network (INN) will answer that question, but first, let’s take a deeper look at what factors drove the price of copper higher, as well as historical movements in the price of copper. In this article What key factors drive the price of copper? How has the copper price moved historically? What was the highest price for copper ever? Why did the copper price hit an all-time high in 2026? Where can investors look for copper opportunities? What key factors drive the price of copper? Robust demand has long been one of the strongest factors driving copper prices. The ever-growing number of copper uses in everyday life — from building construction and electrical grids to electronic products and home appliances — make it the world’s third most-consumed metal. Copper’s anti-corrosive and highly conductive properties are why it’s the go-to metal for the construction industry, and it's used in products such as copper pipes and copper wiring. In fact, construction is responsible for nearly half of global copper consumption. Rising demand for new homes and home renovations in both Asian and Western economies is expected to support copper prices in the long term. In recent decades, copper price spikes have been strongly tied to rising demand from China as the economic powerhouse injects government-backed funding into new housing and infrastructure. Industrial production and construction activity in the Asian nation have been like rocket fuel for copper prices. Additionally, copper’s conductive properties are increasingly being sought after for use in renewable energy applications, including thermal, hydro, wind and solar energy. However, the biggest driver of copper consumption in the renewable energy sector is rising global demand for electric vehicles (EVs), EV charging infrastructure and energy storage applications. As governments push forward with transportation network electrification and energy storage initiatives as a means to combat climate change, copper demand from this segment is expected to surge. New energy vehicles use significantly more copper than internal combustion engine vehicles, which only contain about 22 kilograms of copper. In comparison, hybrid EVs use an average of 40 kilograms, plug-in hybrid EVs use 55 kilograms, battery EVs use 80 kilograms and battery electric buses use 253 kilograms. In 2025, EV sales worldwide increased by 20 percent over 2024 to come in at about 20.7 million units, and analysts at Rho Motion expect that trend to continue in the coming years despite some headwinds in the near-term. On the supply side of the copper market, the world’s largest copper mines are facing depleting high-grade copper resources, while over the last decade or more new copper discoveries have become few and far between. This is a challenging problem considering it can take as many as 10 to 20 years to move a project from discovery to production. There have also been ongoing production issues at copper mines over the past few years. In late 2023, First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTCPL:FQVLF) was forced to shut down its Cobre Panama mine by the government following wide-spread protests. Then, in 2025, accidents at Ivanhoe's (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine in Mali and Freeport-McMoRan's (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia wiped out hundreds of thousands of metric tons of production. While all three mines are expected to return to production, it will take time before they reach full capacity and will continue to exacerbate supply deficits in the copper market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting a 30 percent shortfall in the amount of copper needed to meet demand by 2035. “This will be a major challenge. It’s time to sound the alarm,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. This has increased the need for end users to turn to the copper scrap market to make up for the supply shortage. Sometimes referred to as “the world’s largest copper mine,” recycled copper scrap contributes significantly to supplying and balancing the copper market. Eleni Joannides, Wood Mackenzie's research director for copper, told INN by email at the end of 2024 that there is recognition of the underinvestment in copper exploration, but she sees a new dawn emerging for the sector. “We are seeing signs this could change. Much of the growth over the last five years has come from brownfield expansions rather than greenfield/new discoveries," she said. "Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda." Joannides offered some examples of greenfield projects in the pipeline: Capstone Copper’s (TSX:CS,OTC Pink:CSCCF) Santo Domingo in Chile, Southern Copper’s (NYSE:SCCO) Tia Maria in Peru and Teck Resources' (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Zafranal in Peru. How has the copper price moved historically? Taking a look back at historical price action, the copper price has had a wild ride for more than two decades. Sitting at US$1.38 per pound in late January 2005, the copper price followed global economic growth up to a high of US$3.91 in April 2008. Of course, the global economic crisis of 2008 soon led to a copper crash that left the metal at only US$1.29 by the end of year. Once the global economy began to recover in 2011, copper prices posted a new record high of US$4.58 per pound at the start of the year. However, this high was short-lived as the copper price began a five year downward trend, bottoming out at around US$1.95 in early 2016. Copper prices stayed fairly flat over the next four years, moving in a range of US$2.50 to US$3 per pound. The pandemic’s impact on mine supply and refined copper in 2020 pushed prices higher despite the economic slowdown. The copper price climbed from a low of US$2.17 in March to close out the year at US$3.52. In 2021, signs of economic recovery and supercharged interest in EVs and renewable energy pushed the price of copper to rally higher and higher. Copper topped US$4.90 per pound for the first time ever on May 10, 2021, before falling back to close at US$4.76. Also affecting the copper price at that time was expectations for higher copper demand amid supply concerns out of two of the world’s major copper producers: Chile and Peru. In late April 2021, port workers in Chile called for a strike, while in Peru presidential candidate Pedro Castillo proposed nationalizing mining and redrafting the country’s constitution. In early May 2021, news broke that copper inventories were at their lowest point in 15 years. Expert market watchers such as Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer warned that further inventory declines into 2022 could lead to a copper market deficit. After climbing to start 2022 at US$4.52, the copper price continued to spike on economic recovery expectations and supply shortages to reach US$5.02 per pound on March 6. Throughout the first quarter, fears of supply chain disruptions and historically low stockpiles amid rising copper demand drove prices higher. However, copper prices pulled back in mid-2022 on worries that further COVID-19 lockdowns in China, as well as a growing mortgage crisis, would slow down construction and infrastructure activity in the Asian nation. Rising inflation and interest hikes by the Fed also placed downward pressure on a wide basket of commodities, including copper. By late July 2022, copper prices were trading down at nearly a two year low of around US$3.30. In the early months of 2023 the copper price was trading over the US$4 per pound level after receiving a helpful boost from continuing concerns about low copper inventories, signs of rebounding demand from China, and news about the closure of Peru's Las Bambas mine, which accounts for 2 percent of global copper production. However, that boost turned to a bust in the second half of 2023 as China continued to experience real estate sector issues, alongside the economic woes of the rest of the world. The price of copper dropped to a low for the year of US$3.56 per pound in mid October. Elevated supply levels kept copper trading in the US$3.50 to US$3.80 range for much of Q1 2024 before experiencing strong gains that pushed the price of the red metal to US$4.12 on March 18. Those gains were attributed to in part to tighter copper concentrate supply following the closure of First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama mine, guidance cuts from Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) and declining production at Chile’s Chuquicamata mine. In addition, China’s top copper smelters announced production cuts after limited supply led to lower profits from treatment and refining charges. BHP's (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) attempted takeover of Anglo American also stoked fears of even tighter global copper mine supply. These supply-side challenges continued to juice copper prices in Q2 2024, causing a jump of nearly 29 percent from US$4.04 per pound on April 1 to a then all-time high of US$5.20 by May 20, 2024. After starting 2025 at US$3.99 per pound, copper prices were lifted in Q1 by increasing demand from China’s economic stimulus measures, renewable energy and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and stockpiling brought on by fear of US President Trump’s tariff threats. At the time, Trump had said the US was considering placing tariffs of up to 25 percent on all copper imports in a bid to spark increased domestic production of the base metal. In late February, he signed an executive order instructing the US Commerce Department to investigate whether imported copper poses a national security risk under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The price of copper reached a new high price of US$5.24 per pound on March 26 as tariff tensions escalated. Trump's tariff talk sparked yet another copper price rally in early July when he announced he plans to impose a 50 percent tariff on all imports of the red metal, and it moved higher towards the end of the month in anticipation of them entering effect. By the end of the month, the copper price had climbed to US$5.96 per pound. However, copper's price plummeted back toward the US$4 mark on July 31 following the reveal that tariffs would not be imposed on imports of raw or refined copper, instead targeting semi-finished copper products. The price began to rebound once again in September following the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, ultimately tipping the market from a surplus position into a deficit. The price crossed back above the US$5 mark by the end of October, and, with supply and demand fundamentals fueling its momentum, copper was trading at US$5.60 by the end of 2025. What was the highest price for copper ever? The highest ever copper price on the COMEX is US$6.87 per pound, which it reached during intraday trading on September 8, 2026, breaking its previous high of US$6.77 set on August 7. Copper's all-time high price on the LME is US$14,708.50 per metric ton for the standard three-month contract. The LME copper price set the new high on September 8, breaking the previous high of US$14,533.00 set just one day earlier. Read on to find out how the copper prices reached those heights. Why did the copper price hit an all-time high in 2026? Copper prices in 2026 have climbed on a number of factors. Among them was a buying spree that started in late 2025 as a result of speculative trading, primarily out of China amid growing expectations of higher growth in the US economy and an increased global spending on data centers and power infrastructure projects. On January 29, this led copper prices on the LME to jump 11 percent during intra-day trading to new highs, although the gain had lessened to a 4 percent jump by the close of trading. Copper prices on the COMEX also reached what were then new highs that day. While copper prices moderated from these January highs, they began to climb again in May as markets tightened due to supply chain disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the war between the United States and Iran. The war has created a shortage of sulfuric acid, which is used by copper refiners in the solvent extraction and electrowinning process. In S&P Global's State of the Market: Mining Q1 webinar on May 14, Associate Commodity Analyst Mitzi Sumangil explained how disrupted flows could affect copper supply should a closure of the strait continue. "These facilities, they do have sufficient inventories to cover production, but prolonged wartime can keep prices for almost every single thing higher for longer," she said. "Also, as I mentioned a while ago, DRC and Chile, they are the two main partners of the US when it comes to refined copper imports. So we might see some, let's say, material impacts when it comes to trade flows towards the US in the near future." The August 7 high came following news that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) would be banning copper concentrate exports as it works to stimulate the country's downstream supply chain. The DRC is the second largest producer of copper globally, contributing 3.2 million metric tons in 2025. Looking at the bigger picture, copper’s rally in recent years has encouraged bullish sentiment on prices looking ahead. In the longer term, the fundamentals for copper are expected to get tighter as demand increases from sectors such as EVs and energy storage. A May 2024 report from the International Energy Forum (IEF) projected that as many as 194 new copper mines may need to come online by 2050 to support massive demand from the global energy transition. Additionally, a January 2026 report from S&P Global stated that the world will need 14 million more metric tons of copper annually to meet demand compared to 2025's 27 million MT of copper. The firm reports that supply is expected to peak in 2030 without expansion. Looking at renewable energy, according to the Copper Development Association, solar installations require about 5.5 MT of copper for every megawatt, while onshore wind turbines require 3.52 MT of copper and offshore wind turbines require 9.56 MT of copper. The rise of AI technology is also bolstering the demand outlook for copper. Commodities trader Trafigura has said AI-driven data centers could add 1 million MT to copper demand by 2030, reports Reuters. Copper markets have also gained momentum as traders increase stockpiles of refined metals ahead of the first of a phased set of tariffs on refined copper products to be introduced on January 1, 2027. New fees will be levied at a rate of 15 percent, before rising to 30 percent on January 1, 2028. These movements have caused significant drawdowns in physical inventories at LME warehouses, while US-based inventories have soared to record levels. Likewise, stockpiles at Shanghai Future Exchange warehouses have also fallen, pushing the copper price to a fresh high of 111,710 yuan per metric ton during intraday trading, equivalent to over US$16,600, on September 8. Although the copper movements have been occurring for much of 2026, they have accelerated as the tariff deadline approaches. Where can investors look for copper opportunities? Copper market fundamentals suggest a return to a bull market cycle for the red metal in the medium-term. The copper supply/demand imbalance also presents an investment opportunity for those interested in copper-mining stocks. Are there any copper companies on your radar? If you’re looking for some inspiration, head on over to INN's articles on the top copper stocks on the TSX and TSXV, the biggest copper stocks on the ASX, and our list of 27 advanced US copper projects to watch. If you're looking to diversify your portfolio with other investment options, check out copper ETFS and ETNs or copper futures contracts. This is an updated version of an article first published by the Investing News Network in 2021. Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates! Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article. Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

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